Are Parramatta under pressure?

After the thrilling high of their 2022 Grand Final appearance, it’s safe to say the Eels have had a comparatively flat start to the 2023 campaign.

In fact, after six games, the blue and gold are 2-4 - their worst start to a season since the wooden spoon year of 2018 - and it could have been worse if Wests Tigers weren’t so poor in their execution on Easter Monday.

Making sure that Dylan Brown and Mitchell Moses both re-committed to the club can be seen as a major win for Brad Arthur and his team, but it also makes the opening round performances harder to swallow.

Rational Reasons

There are certainly some valid excuses for the sluggish start. The Eels have had one of the more difficult draws to start the season - they’ve played five genuine contenders in the opening six weeks, with the Roosters (loss), Panthers (win) and Manly (loss) all coming in to their respective contests refreshed after a bye.

Then there's the personnel, with the club experiencing a significant overhaul in key positions during the off-season, with Reed Mahoney and Isaiah Papali'i leading the way.

That's also not to mention the fact they've been missing a number of vital players due to injury and suspension. Shaun Lane has only just come back after suffering a broken jaw, and Ryan Matterson missed the first three games after his decision to take a suspension after a 2022 judiciary charge instead of paying a fine. Inspirational captain Junior Paulo has been suspended for the past two matches, while winger Bailey Simonsson is currently suspended.

Defensive dilemmas

Despite these valid reasons, there are some worrying signs that linger around the club, especially defensively. We regularly hear the saying that defence wins premierships, and for all their attacking talent, the Eels have rarely appeared to have a defensive focus under Brad Arthur. Even last year, in their grand final season, the Eels had the worst defensive record of any team in the top eight.

While many of their attacking stats are humming along behind the likes of Mitch Moses, Dylan Brown and Clint Gutherson, the defensive numbers coming from the No.9 and 13 jerseys need to be worked on. J'maine Hopgood may be a Supercoach dream due to his attacking stats early in his career, but he currently sits sixth in the NRL for missed tackles - more than any other back-rower in the competition.

But he's not the highest-ranked Eel in this key category either, with highly-rated new recruit Josh Hodgson second in the competition with 30 missed tackles from six games. Surprisingly, former Eel Reed Mahoney is in first place in this category, which means we can probably expect a high-scoring contest when the Eels and Dogs play this weekend.

Just a few short years ago Hodgson was considered one of the best dummy-halves in the game. Were it not for the dominance of Cameron Smith he probably would have claimed that title and maybe even a Dally M Medal, but after a few years of struggling for form and injury - he played one NRL game in 2022 - he's going to need some time. A quick look at his career numbers serves as a timely reminder of what a defensive asset he can be.

2015: 24 games - 805 made, 55 missed - 6% missed
2016: 26 games - 875 made, 68 missed - 7.2% missed
2017: 23 games - 818 made, 56 missed - 6.4% missed
2018: 11 games - 405 made, 45 missed - 10% missed
2019: 24 games - 965 made, 104 missed - 9.7% missed
2020: 9 games - 366 made, 52 missed - 12.4% missed
2021: 20 games - 854 made, 72 missed - 7.8% missed
2023: 6 games - 202 made, 30 missed - 12.9% missed

Statistically, Hodgson is having his worst season at the defensive end, but his track record shows how consistently reliable he can become. There's still plenty of time to turn his form around as he becomes familiar with his new team mates and strategy.

But it's not just Hodgson and Hopgood, as a unit the Eels are currently missing 32 tackles per game - the fifth-highest across the league. But just as concerning is the number of 'ineffective' tackles observed by NRL statisticians - the Eels are currently tied for second with 99. Those stats combined don't paint a pretty picture, and they explain why Parramatta - who are a top five team in attacking statistics like attacking metres, post-contact metres, offloads and try assists - are still languishing near the foot of the ladder.

Close calls

Eels fans are also unlikely to appreciate the narrow nature of every contest so far. The Eels currently have the smallest winning margin in the NRL at just 3.5 points, while they also have the second-smallest losing margin of 5 points. Though this can create a frustrating experience for fans, it should also provide hope that a few small tweaks and a bit more match fitness can help turn things around.

Are Parramatta under pressure? Probably not yet. You could argue that they should be winning games against highly-rated teams if they want to prove themselves, but they've never been blown off the park. For a team that's had two representative-level back-rowers missing and a dummy-half still getting back his match fitness, they certainly aren't at crisis point.

It might be frustrating for fans and tipsters alike, but this is still a team capable of beating the best. In a few weeks time, as things settle down, we're likely to be reminded of that fact.

Then again, if we get to Origin and things are still looking grim, we might have to ask the question again.