NSW Election: ALP return to power for first time in 12 years, LNP struggle for positives

The votes are still being counted but it’s become resoundingly clear that the people of NSW have opted for change, with a significant swing against the LNP coalition at the polling booth after 12 years running the state. 

It was no different in our suburban regions either. Though there weren’t many seats that officially changed hands, most electorates showed huge swings away from the Liberals, even in seats where they were challenging. 

"After 12 years in opposition, I want to say to the people who voted for Labor or the Liberals and Nationals, or for independents or minor party candidates today, we have been elected but we will govern for everyone in New South Wales," said new Premier Chris Minns following the concession of Dominic Perrottet. 

"I would like to say thank you to the premier for his service on behalf of the people of New South Wales."

A big cause for concern will be the Western Sydney seats the Liberals had held until the retirement of local MPs prior to the election. In Parramatta, young LNP hopeful Katie Mullens couldn’t capitalise on the standing of previous MP Geoff Lee, with a swing of nearly 15 per cent against the former government, who have lost the seat.

It was a similar result in Riverstone, a former LNP seat where a sitting member retired. It points to a worrying inability of the conservative side of politics to engage with the next generation of voters, with new, younger candidates struggling to gain significant support. 

But it hasn’t all been decided either, with a number of seats still too close to call. 

Both Winston Hills and Ryde are neck and neck. Although the primary vote portrays one candidate ahead, the two-party preferred count has brought both electorates into uncertain territory. 

Meanwhile Penrith is also too close for comfort, with incumbent MP Stuart Ayers currently behind the challenger Karen McKeown - although the primary count margin is still in the hundreds of votes. 

BADGERYS CREEK:
HELD by LNP candidate Tanya Davies (49 percent), well ahead of ALP Garion Thain (30.9).

‍BLACKTOWN: 
HELD by ALP candidate Stephen Bali (53 percent) by a convincing margin. LNP candidate Allan Green (22.25) fell well short.

CABRAMATTA:
HELD by ALP, with incoming candidate Tri Vo securing 37.8 percent of the primary vote - a lead that expands significantly on two-party preferred. Vo replaces outgoing Labor MP Nick Lalich. 

CAMDEN:
ALP WIN. While neither candidate is willing to concede, ALP’s Sally Quinnell (40.7) is slowly expanding her lead over LNP Peter Sidgreaves, with preferences likely to be the incumbent’s only hope. 

CAMPBELLTOWN:
HELD by ALP. Current MP Greg Warren has expanded his reach in the region, securing 54 percent of the primary vote and a 2.2 percent swing. LNP candidate Gypshouna Paudel is only narrowly ahead of One Nation’s Adam Zahra. 

FAIRFIELD: 
HELD by ALP. Another big win for Labor with David Saliba also securing a large share of the primary vote. Both major parties have experienced significant swings against them due to strong independent candidates. 

GRANVILLE:
HELD by ALP. Julia Finn continues the joy for Labor with a crushing victory and significant swing of 4.6 per cent. Meanwhile the LNP have lost further ground to independents, with a 15.5 percent swing further away from the conservative side. 

HAWKESBURY
HELD by LNP. A ray of sunshine for the Liberals, with Robyn Preston (44.7) holding on comfortably against Labor’s Amanda Kotlash (ALP). Despite the win, the region saw a 5.9 per cent swing against the party. 

KELLYVILLE
HELD by LNP. New seat, same result for LNP MP Ray Williams (55.8), comfortably ahead of challenger Alex Karki (31.2). 

WINSTON HILLS
TOO CLOSE TO CALL. The LNP look to have secured a narrow lead on the primary vote, with Mark Taylor (47.7) increasing his two-party preferred lead over ALP hopeful Sameer Pandey after counting resumed this morning.

LIVERPOOL
HELD by ALP. One of the few Sydney electorates to see a significant swing in favour of the LNP, Labor’s Charishma Kaliyanda (47.7) has successfully retained the seat of retiring member Paul Lynch. LNP candidate Richard Ammoun (33.4) was able to secure a 7 percent swing against Labor. 

LONDONDERRY
HELD by ALP. A comfortable win for new deputy leader Prue Car (53.1), securing nearly double the primary vote of LNP challenger Samantha Talakola (30.4). As well as the loss, the Liberals have experienced a double-digit swing against them in the primary vote. 

MOUNT DRUITT
HELD by ALP. One of the safest seats in the region, current MP Edmond Atalla (61.6) made further gains, but the LNP were always likely to struggle.

PENRITH
ALP WIN. Despite being too close to call last night, most major mastheads are now saying the seat has been won by ALP challenger Karen McKeown after she more than doubled her overnight lead to nearly 1,500 votes. While the tide could still turn, it's looking increasingly unlikely by the hour.

PARRAMATTA
ALP WIN. The LNP has lost a seat held by retiring MP Geoff Lee in concerning fashion, with ALP member and former Lord Mayor Donna Davis (47.6) claiming an easy win against LNP hopeful Katie Mullens (35.1). Following the regional trend, the electorate has seen a 15 per cent swing against the previous government. 

PROSPECT
HELD by ALP. Labor MP Hugh McDermott (49.8) has retained a relatively safe seat comfortably over Kalvin Biag (35.0), despite a small swing against both major parties. 

RIVERSTONE
ALP WIN. Another electorate previously held by a retired LNP minister which has been lost, with Warren Kirby (44.6) taking a sizable lead against the Liberals’ Mohit Kumar (40.0) - with a 14 percent swing away from the previous government. 

RYDE
ALP WIN. Despite what is still an incredibly close count, most analysts are now calling Ryde an ALP gain on preferences. The LNP's Jordan Lane (44.8) has extended the lead in the primary vote over Lyndal Howison (39.7).

At the time of publication, all counts are still ongoing.